To quote Adam MacLean's question... "So could it not be that our present day tarot cards should perhaps be seen as arising out of the hermetic ideas at the foundation of the Renaissance, rather then from the Jewish Kaballah?"
The hermetic ideas at the foundation of the Renaissance were influenced by *and* influenced the development of tarot, alchemy, and the Jewish Kaballah. None of it evolved in a vacuum. A number of underlying ideas regarding polarization of opposites, transfiguration, the archetypes of the 7 planets, etc., can be found throughout the various esoteric arts.
I think its possible, even highly possible, that the the Tarocchi of Mantegna had an influence on the development of the tarot ~if~ those prints were accessible and inspirational as 'the archetypal forms for some of the later and more familar tarot'. However, my guess is that it was the very same sources that inspired those prints that inspired the other artists.
Further, I don't think its universally accepted that the original tarot are derived from the Jewish Kabbalah. The *Rider-Waite* and all other Golden Dawn-influenced decks are derived from the GD's bastardized form of Kabbalah, based on their belief that Levi was right. Evidence of an earlier connection is dubious and relates far more to the Cabala of the Renaissance Alchemists, which was derived from Jewish Kabbalah itself.
... eh, but I'm not an expert. I just read and think a lot
