Seeing what we want to see: confirmation bias

euripides

Confirmation bias is the tendency to pay attention to and interpret information as supporting one's existing biases. We often unconsciously spin things; we'll notice 'that one guy' who confirms that all Seaside Wanderers Football Team supporters are loudmouthed louts, and conveniently ignore the 20 others who are sauntering along minding their own business.

I see this sometimes in card reading. While sometimes I think having the cards confirm a hunch isn't a bad thing, I think it's important to be open to new ideas - very often, they're trying to tell us something we don't want to hear. Often it's something we know in our heart-of-hearts but are trying to ignore, or it's the still voice of reason fighting against our long-held passions.

I notice this in requests for card reading advice: how can this mean xyz? "well, my feeling is that it means abc". And then a reply of 'well thanks but no, but I'm *sure* it really means xyz, because...'.

Or the drawing cards again and again because we didn't like what it said the first time.
 

Sentient

euripides, The phenomenon of confirmation bias is generally appreciated because there is a perception that it gets in the way of "accuracy" which in defined negatively in a world dominated by science and logic. If one defines a good reading in terms of being useful to the client, the need to be "correct" fades in importance.

The other side of subjectivity coin would be pulling cards that immediately captivate us, that embody ideas we need to understand and resolve. Then there is the phenomenon of readers delivering a message to a sitter and having the feeling that the same message applies to them. The tarot has many such resonances. Whether we label them "good" or "bad" has much more to do with our receptivity to what the universe is trying to tell us than anything else. So-called bad cards contain no information for those who will only accept good outcomes.

Regarding rigidity with card meanings, I think you'll find it's more prevalent among newer readers. In a world with so many rules, the tarot's apparent lack of such can be disorienting. Before they become comfortable with the cards' flexibility, some cling to what works so as not to become lost in possibilities. As skills improve rigidity naturally lessens.
 

euripides

Good point about increasing flexibility.

When I talk about confirmation bias, I'm not meaning it in the sense that is often used as a criticism of Tarot reading & astrology generally

Sentient said:
If one defines a good reading in terms of being useful to the client, the need to be "correct" fades in importance.
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and my point is that 'correct' and more importantly 'useful' is sometimes going to be something we *don't* really want to hear, and perhaps refuse to hear.
 

Sentient

...my point is that 'correct' and more importantly 'useful' is sometimes going to be something we *don't* really want to hear, and perhaps refuse to hear.
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If that's your point then what you're seeing in tarot simply reflects what happens in life generally.
 

euripides

Sentient said:
If that's your point then what you're seeing in tarot simply reflects what happens in life generally.
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I thought it worth raising, as if our aim in reading is to get some answers and see things a little more clearly, we need to have our eyes open. I'm sorry if my comments are somehow offending you, that is not my intent.
 

Sentient

No offense taken. :)
 

JackofWands

Confirmation bias is an inescapable part of being human. Painting in broad strokes, there are two kinds: motivated and unmotivated bias. Motivated bias is where we see what we want to see; unmotivated bias is where we see what we expect to see (even if we're not pleased about it).

All readers suffer to some extent from both forms of confirmation bias. The best thing you can do to avoid it is to engage in dialogue with your querent and make sure that the reading makes sense to him or her.

This is also part of the reason that many readers recommend recording your readings and looking back on them after the fact. If you got a reading wrong, looking at the reasons you misjudged can help you be aware of (and, hopefully, mitigate) bias in the future.

Just some thoughts.
 

Metafizzypop

euripides said:
Confirmation bias is the tendency to pay attention to and interpret information as supporting one's existing biases. We often unconsciously spin things; we'll notice 'that one guy' who confirms that all Seaside Wanderers Football Team supporters are loudmouthed louts, and conveniently ignore the 20 others who are sauntering along minding their own business.

I see this sometimes in card reading. While sometimes I think having the cards confirm a hunch isn't a bad thing, I think it's important to be open to new ideas - very often, they're trying to tell us something we don't want to hear. Often it's something we know in our heart-of-hearts but are trying to ignore, or it's the still voice of reason fighting against our long-held passions.

I notice this in requests for card reading advice: how can this mean xyz? "well, my feeling is that it means abc". And then a reply of 'well thanks but no, but I'm *sure* it really means xyz, because...'.

Or the drawing cards again and again because we didn't like what it said the first time.
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I agree that people see what they want to see. And it's not limited to tarot. People do it with anything. There's an old song by Simon and Garfunkel called The Boxer, with the line, "A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

In fact, over in Your Readings, I think that virtually all 78 of the tarot cards, at one time or another, have been interpreted to mean marriage, family, and living happily ever after. For example, let's say someone asks about the possibility for a relationship with a person they just met:

Death means happily ever after because, "He's given up on all his past relationships and decided that they're all over and done with, and he's made up his mind to enter into a loving and committed relationship -- with me!"

The 5 of Cups means happily ever after because, "The women he's dated in the past have all made him unhappy, and he's finally met someone that he truly can be happy with -- me!"

The King of Swords reversed means happily ever after because, "He's a good upstanding man who's very unhappy about not having met the right woman yet, which means he'll be thrilled to settle into a happy marriage -- with me!"

It's even worse when a whole slew of bad cards comes up in a reading, and the person interprets all of them to be positive. I do know that bad cards can have positive meanings sometimes, and that any card has a good and a bad side. But sometimes, there's just no way to find that good side without a lot of that confirmation bias stuff.

I believe that very often, people do see what they want to see. Maybe because the truth is too painful, or because people can't admit they're wrong. There are lots of reasons. But it seems to me that, in the right hands, anything can be made to mean anything.
 

Padma

Metafizzypop said:
I agree that people see what they want to see. And it's not limited to tarot. People do it with anything. There's an old song by Simon and Garfunkel called The Boxer, with the line, "A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

In fact, over in Your Readings, I think that virtually all 78 of the tarot cards, at one time or another, have been interpreted to mean marriage, family, and living happily ever after. For example, let's say someone asks about the possibility for a relationship with a person they just met:

Death means happily ever after because, "He's given up on all his past relationships and decided that they're all over and done with, and he's made up his mind to enter into a loving and committed relationship -- with me!"

The 5 of Cups means happily ever after because, "The women he's dated in the past have all made him unhappy, and he's finally met someone that he truly can be happy with -- me!"

The King of Swords reversed means happily ever after because, "He's a good upstanding man who's very unhappy about not having met the right woman yet, which means he'll be thrilled to settle into a happy marriage -- with me!"

It's even worse when a whole slew of bad cards comes up in a reading, and the person interprets all of them to be positive. I do know that bad cards can have positive meanings sometimes, and that any card has a good and a bad side. But sometimes, there's just no way to find that good side without a lot of that confirmation bias stuff.

I believe that very often, people do see what they want to see. Maybe because the truth is too painful, or because people can't admit they're wrong. There are lots of reasons. But it seems to me that, in the right hands, anything can be made to mean anything.
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Metafizzypop TOTALLY beat me to the punch! Yes, yes, and yes! I agree with every word.

"a man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest". (great album, btw!)

I think...that we all inherently carry The Star within us. After all the hateful things fled when Pandora's box was opened, the only thing left in the bottom of the box was Hope. And we all cling desperately to it, because in a harsh world where dreams die daily, Hope is all there is.

Hence the predisposition to make even the worst scenarios look better, because anything is better - even self-delusion - than losing Hope.

Confirmation bias, to me, merely means confirming that the reality and the dreams inside our heads can be confirmed to actually exist. It's a human failing: that we need to constantly be reassured, and to reassure ourselves, that we exist, and that we are right.

(because...if all one thinks is wrong, or not proven correct, and has no confirmation in reality, or from others, even the tarot, where would one be then...? Even if we have to lie to ourselves to obtain that security, we will do it. Hence the confirmation bias. 'Cause you'd go crazy if there was never any agreement from anyone, or anything, with your thoughts, ever. You would begin to think you didn't exist, or were so Unicorn, you were the only one...)
 

Padma

euripides said:
I see this sometimes in card reading. While sometimes I think having the cards confirm a hunch isn't a bad thing, I think it's important to be open to new ideas - very often, they're trying to tell us something we don't want to hear. Often it's something we know in our heart-of-hearts but are trying to ignore, or it's the still voice of reason fighting against our long-held passions.
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Or it's just plain "Hope" that we are not completely nutters, with our intuition so off-base it may as well not exist. Well, that's the explanation...

But you are right in saying that we need to be open to new ideas. Just, not many people are, because fear and self-delusion get in the way...That, and Hope. I sometimes think Hope is so strong that it might be the only thing that keeps us all, as a species, going. Without Hope, there is only desperation. And no one wants to bed down with that.
 
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